Eurasia Group egx and Good Judgment Superforecasters invite you to an exclusive training
FORECASTING TRADE WARS
Tuesday, 24 July | Eurasia Group Office, 149 5th Avenue, NYC | 9am – 5pm
What are the economic, monetary, and political implications of trade wars? Gain a deeper understanding of the political economy of trade wars from Eurasia Group experts and learn the tools of better forecasting from Good Judgment Superforecasters.
Why attend?
egx and Good Judgment faculty will:
Guide you through identifying and evaluating the risks and opportunities of new protectionist measures and trade deals on the horizon.
Teach you to incorporate political risk into your organization’s decision-making process.
Demonstrate skills you can apply to forecasting in an array of strategic questions.
Eurasia Group political risk analysis frameworks
- Identifying and assessing company/sectoral risks, country-specific risks, and global-level risks
- Anticipate relevant inflection points
Good Judgment Superforecasting techniques
- Asking the right questions
- Debiasing individual forecasts
- Aggregating and communicating team forecasts
Key questions
Geopolitically-driven economic and market tail risks are growing in likelihood and intensity as a result of tense US-China relations, a delayed NAFTA renegotiation, complicated Brexit tradeo s, the US’s absence on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and more. By demonstrating best practice forecasting tools and gathering insights from political-risk experts, some of the questions we will address are:
  • How likely is a trade war between the US and China, and could it lead to a global recession?
  • How likely are the impact of USD fluctuations to spill over into global monetary policy?
  • How will the new Mexican president’s trade policies impact Mexico’s trading partners?
  • Which countries and sectors will be most impacted by the CPTPP and what are the implications of this alliance in terms of a multipolar world?
  • Would a disorderly exit from the EU undermine the UK's trade in services? Will Hard Brexiteers succeed in convincing the UK to strike up new trade deals outside of the EU?
Workshop agenda
Understand the issues Framing trade wars: macroeconomic and geopolitical context
Political drivers and implications of trade standoffs: identify key decision-makers, their political and policy agendas, and the pressures and constraints they are facing
Forecasting training Forecasting aptitude test:
measure characteristics that correlate highly with accuracy in forecasting

Calibration test:
establish whether participants are typically over- or under-confident in the predictions they make
De-biasing and forecaster training:
expose biases that a ect accuracy and tools to combat their influence on your predictions
Breakout group practice session Groups apply best practice forecasting tools, including
inside versus outside views, Fermi Estimates, evaluating the diagnostic strength of new evidence
Implications
Interpret conflict scenarios:
understand their implications for di erent asset classes and sectors, as well as their implications for the future world order
Testimonials
"We received nothing but excitement and appreciation for the [Good Judgment training]. The analysts loved the chance to sit down for a morning and debate problems, scenarios and analytical techniques. Your team was professional, prepared, engaging and great to work with! Everything flowed really nicely."
Rachel Bode, CEO
Association of International Risk Intelligence Professionals
"It opened up my mind to political risks to decision making and how we approach governments.”
“Course was great. Good blend of strategy, tools, and tactics.”   “Excellent reading. Sparked my interest in learning more.”

Participants in Eurasia Group’s “Managing global growth in a G-Zero world” Executive Training
Good Judgment
In 2011, the Good Judgment Project was one of five research teams selected by the US intelligence community to compete in an unprecedented government-funded forecasting tournament. Four years, five hundred questions and over one million forecasts later, Good Judgment emerged as the undisputed victor, outperforming in accuracy even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data.
Good Judgment Inc is bringing scientifically-validated training, forecasting methods and seasoned Superforecasters to commercial, government and non-profit clients. We help clients to:
  • Apply the evidence-based techniques that helped the Good Judgment Project achieve its unprecedented results so that they can reap the benefits of SuperforecastingTM within their own organizations; and
  • Quantify hard-to-measure risks with insights from our Superforecasters, drawn from the best in the business
Eurasia Group
Eurasia Group is the global leader in political risk advisory and consulting. Their ability to combine leading political expertise with timely and actionable insight is the core of their value. They are known for deep country and thematic expertise, analytic rigor, and geopolitical foresight that their clients use for major business and market decisions shaping the global economy.
Eurasia Group's clients range from macro hedge funds to institutional investors, from family businesses to the world's largest multinational corporations. What they all share is a desire to better manage the risks and opportunities that flow from politics. Eurasia Group takes a structured approach to understanding these challenges. They provide their clients with both qualitative and quantitative tools to anticipate and manage political risks, and to profit from them. Eurasia Group's multi-faceted approach allows them to adapt to the rapidly evolving world of geopolitics.
LIMITED REGISTRATION
Tuesday 24th July | Eurasia Group Office, 149 5th Avenue | 9am – 5pm | Early bird pricing of $1,000/participant
Contact:
Sourin Ghosh
Client Engagement Manager, egX, Eurasia Group
Email: ghosh@eurasiagroup.net