Our FutureFirst™ service gives you 24/7 access to Superforecaster insights on dozens of newsworthy questions.
With a subscription to FutureFirst you have access to dozens of daily updated forecasts
plus qualitative analysis by Good Judgment Inc’s Professional Superforecasters.
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. The Good Judgment Project—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Tetlock and Mellers co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services to partners and clients in the non-profit, government, and private sectors.
That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
See our Case Studies for additional examples of organizations using Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better decisions.
Financial Times (October 2025) (*requires access to Monetary Policy Radar)
“Superforecasters have continued to beat the market so far this year when it comes to anticipating Fed decisions, as they had also in 2023 and 2024,” writes Financial Times data journalist Joel Suss for FT’s exclusive Monetary Policy Radar service.
“At the FT’s Monetary Policy Radar, we’ve been continuously tracking how superforecasters stack up against financial markets when it comes to anticipating central bank interest rate decisions. We last crunched the numbers at the beginning of this year, concluding that superforecasters continued to have the edge over the futures market in anticipating what the FOMC will do. Looking at the data since January, it is clear that the superforecasters continue to beat the market.”
The World Ahead 2025, The Economist (November 2024)
Following another successful collaboration last year, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters were invited to contribute their forecasts for The Economist’s forward-looking publication, The World Ahead 2025. Their forecasts focus on US tariffs; elections in Germany, Canada, and Australia; China’s inflation; the Russia-Ukraine conflict; and more.
Financial Times (February 2025) (*requires access to Monetary Policy Radar)
“A group of laypeople have generally out-predicted futures markets when it comes to Fed interest rate decisions,” writes Financial Times data journalist Joel Suss in the next instalment of the Alternative Data series.
The data-rich article compares the Superforecasters’ track record with that of the futures markets in anticipating what the FOMC will do. The Superforecasters proved 30% more accurate on average than the futures in 2024-2025. The piece also examines Good Judgment’s forecasts of Bank of England and ECB rate decisions.
“This outperformance by superforecasters is looking less fluky as time goes on and the data piles up,” the article concludes.
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